In a study published today in Nature Neuroscience, researchers at the Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging at UCL (University College London) show that people who are very optimistic about the outcome of events tend to learn only from information that reinforces their rose-tinted view of the world...
The researchers found that people did, in fact, update their estimates based on the information given, but only if the information was better than expected. For example if they had predicted that their likelihood of suffering from cancer was 40%, but the average likelihood was 30%, they might adjust their estimate to 32%. If the information was worse than expected – for example, if they had estimated 10% – then they tended to adjust their estimate much less, as if ignoring the data.
This is because Optimism is Stupid. The second law of thermodynamics is pretty clear on this, and yet people are stupid and mostly they should die.
No, thermodynamics isn't meant to be used as a philosophy, but I've always thought that if something explains the way the world works, it must also be a better philosophy than anything else running around out there. Here are the three laws in plain language, see if you know a better way to view the world:
1. You can't get out more than you put in.
2. Entropy Always increases.
3. You cannot stop change.
And those are the rose-colored versions of the laws. My Physics teacher read them, as I do, thus:
1. You can't win.
2. You can't break even.
3. You can't stop playing the game.
So, suck it Happypeople (tm). You're wrong, I'm right, nana-nana boo boo, stick your head in a car door and slam it shut repeatedly.
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